Understanding Confidence Scores

Every AI-generated idea comes with a confidence score. This helps you prioritize which ideas to pursue first.

The 1-5 Star Rating#

Confidence scores range from 1 to 5 stars:

Higher stars = more evidence this idea will work.

How Confidence Is Calculated#

The confidence score comes from the underlying opportunity score (0-100), which combines multiple factors:

Factor 1: Outlier Performance (0-50 points)#

How much did competitor videos outperform their channels?

• High outlier scores = Higher confidence
• Capped at 50 points to avoid over-weighting single viral hits

Factor 2: Validation Across Competitors (0-50 points)#

How many competitors succeeded with this topic?

• 1 competitor: Some signal, but could be luck
• 2-3 competitors: Good validation
• 5+ competitors: Strong pattern

More competitors succeeding = higher confidence.

Factor 3: View Multiplier#

Absolute view counts matter too. An idea with 1M total views across proof videos carries more weight than one with 50K.

Factor 4: Gap Bonus#

Pure gaps (topics you haven't covered) get a 20% bonus because:

• Fresh content often performs better
• Less competition on your channel
• Audience gets something new

Interpreting Confidence Scores#

5 Stars: Best Opportunities#

What it means:

• Multiple competitors succeeded with this topic
• High outlier scores across proof videos
• Significant total view count
• Often a pure gap

Action: Prioritize these ideas. They have the most evidence of working.

4 Stars: Strong Validation#

What it means:

• Clear success pattern
• 2-3 competitors with outlier performance
• Good but not exceptional metrics

Action: Strong candidates for your content calendar.

3 Stars: Good Potential#

What it means:

• Some validation exists
• May have fewer proof videos
• Metrics are solid but not outstanding

Action: Worth pursuing, especially if the topic fits your channel well.

2 Stars: Worth Exploring#

What it means:

• Limited validation
• Maybe only one competitor succeeded
• Smaller view counts

Action: Consider if the topic aligns with your expertise or passion.

1 Star: Low Confidence#

What it means:

• Minimal validation
• Weak performance from proof videos
• May be a stretch for your niche

Action: Only pursue if you have strong personal conviction.

Confidence Isn't Everything#

High confidence means "this worked for others." But consider:

Your Unique Angle#

You might have expertise or perspective that competitors lacked. A 3-star idea could become your best video if you execute it differently.

Audience Fit#

A 5-star idea might not fit your specific audience. Always consider whether your subscribers would care.

Timing#

Some ideas are time-sensitive. A 4-star idea about last month's news is worth less than a 3-star evergreen topic.

Passion#

Making content you care about shows. A 2-star idea you're excited about may outperform a 5-star idea that feels like a chore.

Using Confidence to Prioritize#

A practical approach:

1. Start with 4-5 star ideas — Highest probability of success
2. Review 3-star ideas for strong personal fits
3. Consider 2-star ideas if they align with your expertise
4. Skip 1-star ideas unless you have specific reasons

---

Related Articles

• How AI Ideas Work
• Competitor Proof and Success Factors
• Getting Better Ideas